In Multipolarity, Russia, Ukraine, USA

By Morrigan Johnson. Originally published on Covert Action Magazine.

Scott Ritter and Colonel Richard Black, a former Virginia state senator, warn about dangers of nuclear war in press conference on June 12. [Source: youtube.com]

Says: “You will die”

“You will die,” Scott Ritter warned Americans on Wednesday morning in a press conference hosted by the Schiller Institute. “The danger is real,” he said, “and Amercians should be scared.”

Ritter noted that, as the war in Ukraine escalates and the U.S. is providing weapons to directly attack Russia, “Anatoly Antonov, the top Russian nuclear weapon expert and lead negotiator on past nuclear treaties with the U.S., is sitting in the Kremlin and his phone is not ringing. We are not even attempting at diplomacy.”

Ritter was joined by Helga Zepp-LaRouche and former intelligence professionals Lawrence Wilkerson and former Republican state senator and Vietnam veteran Richard Black. They urged the people of the United States and the world to awaken to the danger of mutually assured destruction.

Their dire warning comes as tensions escalate to a point reminiscent of, or even exceeding, the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis during the first Cold War period, when the world came within a heartbeat of nuclear war breaking out.

The Western media are simply not covering developments. Ritter, a former UN weapons inspector who exposed the deceit surrounding the WMD and Iraq, urged Americans to take the urgency and sense of danger to the polls in the next election to prevent World War III, and to pressure decision makers every step of the way.

While the Russian nuclear doctrine is defensive, the American doctrine has been under pressure to miniaturize the nuclear capabilities into conventional use and to develop first strike capabilities in recent years.

In January, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakhorova raised the alarm that the White House has no one in charge of nukes with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in the hospital with prostate cancer. After October 7th, Israel’s Dimona nuclear site came under American integration and control, amid widespread inter-governmental, inter-institutional and inter-state mistrust and dysfunction. The American and Israeli nuclear capabilities are otherwise, under a “there is no doctrine” doctrine.

How Israel's Dimona Nuclear Reactor Was Concealed From the U.S. - Haaretz Com - Haaretz.com
Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor. [Source: haaretz.com]

Following the 2023 Belarus-Russia nuclear arms deal, in response to increased NATO activity, spokeswoman Zakharova pointed out the inadequate reaction of a number of Western capitals to decisions regarding the development of the deal, saying “In the context of the total hybrid war unleashed by the West against Russia and the declared intention of the United States and NATO to inflict a “strategic defeat” on us, it would be naive to continue to count on the complete absence of any military-technical countermeasures on our part in this area. We reserved and continue to reserve the right to take the necessary additional steps to ensure the security of Russia and its allies.”

The spokeswoman continued, “Moreover, unlike NATO, which is a conglomerate of countries subordinate to the United States, in our case we are talking about a Union State that officially has a common military doctrine. Therefore, we are talking about security measures taken by the Union State on its own national territory. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made, and they will be strictly implemented.” Putin declared Belarus a nuclear power in January 2024.

On the evening of May 14th, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) completed a sub-critical experiment at the PULSE facility in Nevada. Seismic activity data and advanced computer models are analyzed in Sandia and Los Alamos National Lab, Lawrence Livermore National Lab, and the Mission Support and Test Services LLC. Satellites are also routinely used.

A map of the area Description automatically generated
[Source: pozirk.online]

Ukraine is striking targets deep inside Russia with Western weapons. Ukraine has violated weapons restrictions and red lines in the past. However ,NATO member states, the U.S. and Germany, are now fully authorizing the scope of how Western weapons can be used, including striking deep into Russian territory.

A screenshot of a news article Description automatically generated
[Source: foreignpolicy.com]

On May 22nd, Ukrainian drones struck the Armavir Radar Station in Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar Krai region, a part of Russia’s early warning radar system used for the detection of incoming ICBM attacks. Such a defensive radar warning system plays a vital role in the security of the country and is integrated into the nuclear command and control system. In strategic terms, it signals imminent nuclear Armageddon.

A map of the earth with a blue and yellow circle Description automatically generated
[Source: eir.news]

A Russian flotilla is now miles from the Florida coast with a strong message, reminiscent of the first Cuban Missile Crisis. Included among the flotilla, equipped with hypersonic missiles, is a Yasen-class Kazen submarine armed with nuclear SLBMs.

A screenshot of a news article Description automatically generated
[Source: washingtonpost.com]

Mutually assured destruction is inevitable unless the U.S. shifts its foreign policy direction. If the Earth were destroyed in nuclear war, it would result in a nuclear winter.

A map of the beach and the ocean Description automatically generated
[Source: twitter.com]

Stability-instability paradox

There is a stability-instability paradox arising out of the blurring of conventional war, proxy war compared to direct involvement in war, and nuclear war—these are all very separate states of war. The lack of clarity and lack of diplomacy by the Western powers, however, have led to an international stability crisis.

Consider the purpose of nuclear deterrent logic to be along the lines of nuclear mutually assured destruction that ought to become all-fearing where states avoid war at all costs. The argument of deterrence posits that states are made more safe through mutually assured destruction. The stability-instability paradox is a well-established concept in nuclear security literature.

But the paradox can spiral out of control, making the world less safe on the small scale where conventional war is blurred from the big scale nuclear war. The doctrine that would trigger a nuclear war might not always be as clear on the conventional level and non-state level from the nuclear level, leaving a zone of instability.

The paradox can be exaggerated theoretically at both extremes. Does deterrence prevent war, or is it destabilizing? It means that nuclear weapons can create extreme stability and instability scenarios, depending on certain factors. Wherever the state’s doctrines are unclear, or insufficient, the necessity of extremely clear state-to-state communication at high levels must take place to clarify the state of war, and the red lines between conventional, non-state threats, or nuclear war. The problem is that diplomacy is not occurring.

The U.S. is involved in a conventional proxy, waging hybrid war by non-state means, and crossing every red line. The U.S. and NATO are belligerents in the war, but act as if not at war.

Americans are even more unaware than at the state level due to the media’s blackout of the state’s foreign policy failures, or the world situation.

On June 13th, NATO General Secretary Jens Soltenberg gave a speech stating the intent to develop “response options”, by meeting with counterparts in North America the following week.

The diplomatic breakdown is at a crisis point and Putin is being pressured to change the Russian doctrine, from a defensive one to something that addresses the existential Russian security demands.  When will the U.S. and NATO respect Russia’s red lines?

*****

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