New survey of Ukrainians shows high support for end to civil war, low support for political leaders in Kyiv

KIIS survey: Socio-political situation in Ukraine in September 2015

Seventy eight per cent of respondents want Kyiv to negotiate an end to its civil war in the east of the country. Only 12 per cent want a continuation of war.

Survey published by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, October 5, 2015. Original press release and survey results published here in Ukrainian. The following is a slightly-edited Google translation. (An English-languaage version of the KIIS report is published on its website, here.) The Kiev International Institute of Sociology conducts sociological and marketing research.

Street in Odessa, Ukraine

Introductory note by New Cold War.org:
This survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) is the latest in a steady string of such surveys by the institute. The past surveys of KIIS have been ignored by Western mainstream media. This latest one will likely suffer the same fate. That’s because the survey results consistently contradict the narrative of Western mainstream media and governments as well as the NATO military alliance, all of which argue that the conflict and civil war in Ukraine is caused by an alleged economic and military “aggression by Russia” and that the population of Ukraine supports the civil war course of the governing regime in Kyiv. For now, the argument which challenges that official ‘group think’–that a neo-conservative government in Kyiv as well as the European Union are intent on imposing by violence Greece-style austerity in Ukraine–is not allowed into the pages of Western media nor into the mainstream political discourse.

Published surveys of the people of Crimea in late 2014 and early 2015 showing widespread satisfaction with the March 2014 decision to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation have similarly been ignored by Western media, governments and mainstream political parties.

Main results:  

• ‘Petro Poroshenko Bloc’ and ‘Fatherland’ party leaders are rated in the top were elections to be held to the Verkhovna Rada and local authorities, followed by ‘Self Reliance’ and ‘Opposition Bloc’.
• After the Rada election in October 2014, the party whose rating has dropped the most is the ‘Popular Front’ of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. The ‘Petro Poroshenko Bloc’ and ‘Self Reliance’ electoral machines showed some growth but then suffered slight declines and a return to levels of the election. The ‘Fatherland’ party has declined compared with July 2015 but is significantly higher in comparison with the elections of 2014.
• Poroshenko is the leader in the presidential rating (25%), second place is occupied by Yulia Tymoshenko (20%), other candidates receive less than 9%.
• Most people negatively assess the activity of Petro Poroshenko as President and Arseniy Yatsenyuk as Prime Minister.

• To the question ‘What is the way out of the current military conflict in the Donbas region which you consider the most appropriate?’, 78.0% of respondents answered “the continuation of negotiations and a peaceful settlement”. The option of ‘Revitalization of military actions and war to the liberation of Donbas’ was supported by only 12.6% of respondents. Another 9.5% of respondents could not answer the question.

From 17 to 27 September 2015, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a commissioned, nationwide poll. The survey interviewed 2041 respondents residing in 110 localities in all regions of Ukraine (except Crimea) on four levels of degrees random sample with quota selection at the final stage, which is representative for the population of Ukraine over 18 years. In Luhansk and Donetsk region, the survey was conducted only on the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities. Statistical sampling error (with probability 0.95, design effect 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for figures close to 50%, 2.8% – for the indicators close to 25%, 2.0% – for the indicators close to 10% 1.4% – for the indicators close to 5%.

Summaries

1. Electoral moods of the population towards an election to the Verkhovna Rada

If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in late September, with all citizens of Ukraine aged over 18:

• 11.6% would vote for the party “Petro Poroshenko Bloc”
• 11% – for the All-Ukrainian Union “Fatherland”,
• 7.5% – for the party “Self Reliance”
• 6.4% – for the party “Opposition Bloc”
• 4.3% – for the Radical Party O. Lyashko,
• 3.8% – for the party “Right Sector”
• 2.3% – for the party “Citizenship”
• 1.9% – for the All-Ukrainian Union “Freedom”
• 1.5% – for the party “Left Opposition”
• 1.3% – for the party “The Party of ordinary people”
• 1.3% – for the party “dill”
• 1.2% – for the party “Strong Ukraine”
• 0.9% – for the party “Renaissance”
• 0.7% – for the party “strongly citizens”
• 0.7% – for the party “People’s Front”
• 0.5% – for the party “People’s Control”
• by other parties – generally 1.3%
• 2.1% – would have crossed all the parties would have destroyed newsletter
• 14.2% – chose not to vote,
• 25.3% – have not decided for whom to vote.

So if those who have not decided for whom to vote, as usual, did not come to the polls, voting would take about 58% of all voters and votes cast were as used as follows (in fact, these indicators next to the possible outcomes elections if they were held in late September):

• 19.9% ​​would vote for the party “Petro Poroshenko Bloc”
• 18.8% – for the All-Ukrainian Union “Fatherland”,
• 12.8% – for the party “Self”
• 11.0% – for the party “opposition bloc”
• 7.4% – for the Radical Party O. Lyashko,
• 6.4% – for the party “Right Sector”
• 4.0% – for the party “Citizenship”
• 3.2% – for the All-Ukrainian Union “Freedom”
• 2.6% – for the party “Left Opposition”
• 2.3% – for the party “The Party of ordinary people”
• 2.2% – for the party “dill”
• 2.0% – for the party “Strong Ukraine”
• 1.5% – for the party “Renaissance”
• 1.3% – for the party “strongly citizens”
• 1.3% – for the party “People’s Front”
• 0.9% – for the party “People’s Control”
• by other parties – generally 2.3%.

The following table compares the ratings of parties with ratings as of March and July 2015 and the results of the elections of 2014.

2. Electoral moods of the population towards an election to the presidency of Ukraine

If presidential elections in Ukraine took place in late September, with all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 –

• 13.7% would vote for Petro Poroshenko,
• 11.1% – for Yulia Tymoshenko,
• 4.8% – Yuri Boiko,
• 4.7% – by Andrew Garden,
• 4.4% – by Anatoly Gritsenko,
• 4.3% – by Dmitry Yarosh,
• 4.2% – by Oleg Lyashko,
• 1.3% – by Borislav shore,
• 1.3% – by Oleg Tyagnibok,
• 1.1% – by Sergei Kaplin,
• other candidates – just 3.4%
• 4.2% – would have crossed all candidates would have destroyed newsletter
• 14.4% – chose not to vote,
• 27.3% – have not decided for whom to vote.

So if those who have not decided for whom to vote, as usual, did not come to the polls, voting would take about 53% of all voters and votes cast would be distributed as follows:

• 25.3% would vote Petro Poroshenko,
• 20.5% – for Yulia Tymoshenko,
• 8.8% – by Yuriy Boyko,
• 8.6% – by Andrew Garden,
• 8.1% – by Anatoly Gritsenko,
• 7.9% – by Dmitry Yarosh,
• 7.7% – by Oleg Lyashko,
• 2.4% – by Borislav shore,
• 2.4% – by Oleg Tyagnibok,
• 2.0% – by Sergei Kaplin,
• other candidates – just 6.3%.

The following candidates the rankings (% of those intending to vote and undecided) compared with ratings as of July 2015.

3. Electoral moods of the population towards an election to local authorities

Asked “If next Sunday there were elections to local authorities (regional council, district council or city council), or would you participate in the voting? And what would be your choice, if the election was attended by the following parties? “Respondents were as follows. Among all people aged 18 and over would vote for members of the party:

• All-Ukrainian Union “Fatherland” – 9.4%
• “Petro Poroshenko Bloc” – 8.6%
• “Self” – 7.1%
• “Opposition bloc” – 5.6%
• O. Lyashko Radical Party – 2.6%
• “Right Sector” – 2.3%
• “Dill” – 1.8%
• All-Ukrainian Union “Freedom” – 1.6%
• “Citizenship” – 1.5%
• “Renaissance” – 1.1%
• “The party of ordinary people” – 0.9%
• “Decisive citizens” – 0.7%
• “Left Opposition” – 0.6%
• “People’s Control” – 0.5%
• by members of other parties – generally 2.7%
• 1.4% – crossed to the representatives of all the parties would have destroyed newsletter
• 14.0% – chose not to vote,
• 36.5% – have not decided for whom to vote,

So if those who have not decided for whom to vote, as usual, did not come to the polls, voting would take about 47% of all voters and submitted by party representatives voting would be as follows:

• All-Ukrainian Union “Fatherland” – 19,5%
• “Petro Poroshenko Bloc” – 18.0%
• “Self” – 14.9%
• “Opposition bloc” – 11.6%
• O. Lyashko Radical Party – 5.5%
• “Right Sector” – 4.8%
• “Dill” – 3.7%
• All-Ukrainian Union “Freedom” – 3.4%
• “Citizenship” – 3.1%
• “Renaissance” – 2.3%
• “The party of ordinary people” – 1.9%
• “Decisive citizens” – 1.6%
• “Left Opposition” – 1.2%
• “People’s Control” – 1.0%
• by members of other parties – generally 5.6%.

4. Evaluation of Poroshenko President and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk

• Among all people aged 18 years and 58.6% negatively assessed the work of the President of Petro Poroshenko positively evaluated – 27,2%.
• Negatively evaluate the work of the Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk 71.3%, positively – 17.3%.

5. Opinions of the population about ways to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine and Minsk agreements

• The question “What is the way out of the current military conflict in the Donbas you consider the most appropriate?” 78.0% of respondents answered “the continuation of negotiations and a peaceful settlement.” Option “Revitalization of military actions and war to the liberation of Donbass” 12.6% of respondents chose. Another 9.5% of respondents could not answer the question.
• Respondents who chose the “peaceful settlement”, raised the additional question “In your opinion, what format of negotiations would be the most effective peace settlement in Donbass?”. Respondents to this question is as follows:
  • Continuation of the current negotiations in Minsk “Norman” format – with the participation of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France – 19.5%
  • You must start new negotiations in the new format involving leaders of the US, European Union, individual EU states (Germany, France, Poland), Russia – 33.6%
  • You must begin direct negotiations between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia no other international participants – 20.8%
  • You must begin direct negotiations between the leaders of Ukraine and NPT / FSC no other international participants – 11.7%
  • Other – 1%
  • Undecided his thought – 13.4%.

• To the question “Do you believe or do not believe that the implementation of Minsk agreements will establish peace in Donbass” 26.9% of respondents said they believe. Do not believe – 60.7%. Another 12.3% have not made up my mind.
• To the question “In your opinion, is the Minsk agreement …” respondents was as follows:
  • Fully or nearly fully executed – 0.7%
  • Basically, performed, but not completely – 20%
  • Basically, not performed, but there are some improvements – 42.1%
  • Not performed – 28.8%
  • Undecided his opinion – 8,3%.
  • 63.5% of inhabitants of Ukraine agree with the statement that “the Russian leadership will not contribute to the full implementation of the agreements Minsk” disagree – 17.4%.

More detailed survey breakdowns:

If next Sunday there were elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, or would you participate in the voting? If “yes”: And what would be your choice, if the election was attended by the following parties?  

If held next Sunday presidential elections in Ukraine, or would you participate in the voting? If “yes”: And what would be your choice, if the election candidates are involved?

If next Sunday there were elections to local authorities (regional council, district council or city council), or would you participate in the voting? If “yes”: And what would be your choice, if the election was attended by the following parties?  

How do you assess the activities of Petro Poroshenko as President of Ukraine?  

How do you assess the activity of Arseniy Yatsenyuk to the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine?  

What is the way out of the current military conflict in the Donbas you consider the most appropriate?  

AMONG those who support peace, which format of negotiations would be the most effective peace settlement in Donbass?  

Do you believe or do not believe that the implementation of Minsk agreements will establish peace in the Donbass?  

In your opinion, is the Minsk agreement …

Do you agree or disagree with this opinion, “the Russian leadership will not contribute to the full implementation of the agreements Minsk”?